Atlanta United may have clinched a playoff spot, but there’s still plenty on the line as the club heads into Decision Day 2017, presented by AT&T – the final day of regular season matches. Playoff seeding can offer a crucial advantage in the postseason, and despite currently sitting in fourth place, Atlanta United could finish anywhere from second to fifth in the Eastern Conference. Here are the different scenarios that could lead to each outcome/seeding:
#2 Seed - A first-round playoff bye
Atlanta Win – AND – NYC Loss/Draw – AND – Chicago Loss/Draw
To avoid the quick turnaround of a midweek play-in game, Atlanta United would have to finish in second place to get a bye straight into the Conference Semifinals. While this is still on the table, the Five Stripes would need a little help. The two teams above them in the table, New York City FC and the Chicago Fire would have to lose or draw against two in-form teams, Columbus and Houston respectively. If that happened, an Atlanta United win would push them over Chicago and potentially over NYC in points. However, if New York is to draw, they would be even on points with Atlanta, as well as even on the first tie-breaker, regular season wins. The second tiebreaker, goal differential, would then go to Atlanta, so that would earn the red, black and gold the second seed and a knockout round bye.
#3 or #4 Seed - Home field advantage
(#3) Atlanta Win – AND – NYC Loss/Draw – OR – Chicago Loss/Draw
(#4) Atlanta Win – OR – Columbus Loss
(#4) Atlanta Draw – AND – Columbus Loss/Draw
If Atlanta United find themselves in the single-elimination knockout round, having home field advantage could be a major boost to their chances of success. Atlanta United wouldn’t need help here, with just a win enough to clinch it. But depending on other outcomes, they could end up with a #3 or #4 seed, which would affect their knockout round opponent. With NYCFC and Chicago sitting just in front of Atlanta, a loss or draw from one of them combined with an Atlanta win would put the expansion side into third place, and a home match against the locked #6 seed Red Bulls in the knockout round. However, if both NYC and Chicago get a win, Atlanta would have to settle for a #4 seed, which would mean a home match against Columbus in the first round. Even if Atlanta were to lose Sunday’s Toronto match, a Columbus loss in New York would keep Atlanta in fourth place and a home knockout round game against the Crew.
#5 Seed - On the road for the knockout round
Atlanta Loss – AND – Columbus Win/Draw
Atlanta Draw – AND – Columbus Win
Despite their incredible inaugural season and a spot in the postseason locked, Atlanta United still haven’t clinched a home playoff game. If they lose against Toronto and Columbus earn a draw or a win on the road against New York City FC, that would drop the Five Stripes into fifth place. Or if Atlanta United draw and Columbus gets all three points, that would also mean a fifth-placed finish. That would mean they would have to travel to the fourth-seeded team – likely Columbus, but could be NYCFC or Chicago – for a road match in the knockout round game.
Atlanta United’s players are fully focused on what they can control - earning a win to cap off the regular season against Toronto FC and securing a home playoff match. With plenty on the line, make sure you’re ready to show the Five Stripes your support as the club looks to break the MLS single-game attendance record again. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. EST on Sunday, buy tickets here or see how you can tune in from home by clicking here.
