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Every scenario for Atlanta United to advance

A positive start to the matchweek for the 17s. There’s still a chance ATL UTD makes it to the knockout stage of the MLS is Back Tournament. In order for Atlanta to advance, though, the fate of the 5-Stripes is not entirely in the team’s hands. 

Most importantly, winning Tuesday night against Columbus Crew SC is critical. If Atlanta loses or draws, there is no way to advance. If Atlanta wins, the match between New York Red Bulls and FC Cincinnati on Wednesday cannot end in a draw. If that happens, even with a win, Atlanta will be out of the tournament. 

There are several different ways the rest of the scenarios could play out. Below, we have broken down the scenarios by margin of victory for Atlanta and how that will impact the rest of the groups in this stage. Luckily for Atlanta, one of the must-have situations has already occurred. Atlanta needed NYCFC to either draw or only win by one goal which they did early Monday morning. 

Here are all the different scenarios that need to play out for the 5-Stripes to advance.

If Atlanta wins by 1 and the CIN vs NYRB match does not end in a draw, then at least two of the following scenarios must occur for ATL UTD to advance.

Group

Scenario

Outcome

A

NYCFC wins by 1

NYCFC won 1-0

B

Vancouver wins by 2 or less

July 23rd at 9AM

C

Montreal Wins by 1 + Atlanta wins tiebreaker with Montreal

July 21st at 10:30PM

D

RSL wins by 2 + Minnesota wins/draws 

OR 

RSL wins by 2 + Colorado wins by 1

RSL - July 22nd at 9AM

COLvMIN - July 22nd at 10:30PM

F

LA Galaxy vs Houston ends in draw 

OR 

LA Galaxy wins by 3 or less

July 23rd at 8PM

 

If Atlanta wins by 2 and the CIN vs NYRB match does not end in a draw, then at least two of the following scenarios must occur for ATL UTD to advance.

Group

Scenario

Outcome

A

NYCFC wins by 2 or less

NYCFC won 1-0

B

Vancouver wins by 3 or less

July 23rd at 9AM

C

DC vs. Montreal ends in Draw + Atlanta wins tiebreaker with DC

OR

Montreal wins by 1

July 21st at 10:30PM

D

RSL wins by 1 + Minnesota wins/draws 

OR 

RSL wins by 1 + Colorado wins by 2 or less

RSL - July 22nd at 9AM

COLvMIN - July 22nd at 10:30PM

F

LA Galaxy vs Houston ends in draw 

OR 

LA Galaxy wins by 4 or less

July 23rd at 8PM

 

If Atlanta wins by 3 and the CIN vs NYRB match does not end in a draw, then at least two of the following scenarios must occur for ATL UTD to advance.

Group

Scenario

Outcome

A

NYCFC wins by 3 or less

NYCFC won 1-0

B

Vancouver wins by 4 or less

July 23rd at 9AM

C

DC vs Montreal ends in draw

OR

Montreal wins by 2 or less

July 21st at 10:30PM

D

RSL wins by 1 + Minnesota wins/draws 

OR 

RSL wins by 1 + Colorado wins by 3 or less

RSL - July 22nd at 9AM

COLvMIN - July 22nd at 10:30PM

F

LA Galaxy vs Houston ends in draw 

OR 

LA Galaxy wins by 5 or less

July 23rd at 8PM

 

The tiebreakers that MLS uses for the MLS is Back Tournament are in this order: (1) points, (2) goal differential, (3) goals scored, (4) fewest disciplinary points.

Atlanta United’s match vs the Crew SC kicks off Tuesday night at 8 PM on ESPN2 and in Spanish on TUDN. Follow our social platforms for all coverage.